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Research shows that changes in climate create warmer, drier conditions. Increased drought, and a longer fire season are boosting these increases in wildfire risk. For much of the U.S. West, projections show that an average annual 1 degree C temperature increase would increase the median burned area per year as much as 600 percent in some types of forests. In the Southeastern United States modeling suggests increased fire risk and a longer fire season, with at least a 30 percent increase from 2011 in the area burned by lightning-ignited wildfire by 2060. 


Once a fire starts—more than 80 percent of U.S. wildfires are caused by people—warmer temperatures and drier conditions can help fires spread and make them harder to put out. Warmer, drier conditions also contribute to the spread of the mountain pine beetle and other insects that can weaken or kill trees, building up the fuels in a forest.

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The extent of area burned by wildfires each year appears to have increased since the 1980s.

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In the first half of 2019 the number of forest fires recorded in the EU was three times the average over the past decade. 

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By looking back at 35 years of weather data, U.S. Forest Service scientists found that fire seasons are starting earlier in the spring and extending later into autumn. Parts of the Western United States, Mexico, Brazil, and East Africa now have fire seasons that are more than a month longer than they were 35 years ago.

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Wildfires also can be a major source of carbon dioxide emissions. Researchers found that carbon emissions from forest fires increased by 60% globally between 2001 and 2023. Fire emissions from boreal forests in Eurasia and North America nearly tripled during that same time period, driven by a warmer, drier climate.


In 2023, Canada’s warmest and driest conditions since 1980 stoked extreme fires that lasted for five months. NASA researchers found that these fires released about 640 million metric tons of carbon.

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